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A summary of the European Union Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (EU-TE-SAT) 2026

The European Union Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (EU-TE-SAT) 2026 presents Europol’s latest assessment of the terrorism and violent extremism landscape across Europe. Although the number of terrorist attacks recorded across EU Member States declined during 2025, the report warns against interpreting this as a reduction in the overall threat. Instead, terrorism is evolving into a more fragmented, technologically enabled and unpredictable phenomenon that increasingly transcends traditional ideological boundaries. Europol argues that the threat facing Europe today is no longer defined solely by organised terrorist groups. It is increasingly shaped by decentralised online communities, self-radicalised individuals, emerging technologies and global geopolitical events.

While Europe experienced fewer attacks than in previous years, law enforcement agencies continued to identify and disrupt a significant number of terrorist plots and extremist activities. Hundreds of individuals were arrested for terrorism-related offences across the European Union during the reporting period. These figures reflect both the persistence of extremist activity and the effectiveness of intelligence and law enforcement agencies in identifying threats before they materialise. Europol emphasises, however, that attack statistics alone provide only a partial picture of the security environment. Increasingly, terrorist activity takes place within digital ecosystems where recruitment, radicalisation, financing and operational planning occur long before violence takes place.

Mapping the Threat Across Europe
Jihadist terrorism remains the most significant threat to the European Union. Most attacks, fatalities and arrests recorded during 2025 were linked to jihadist-inspired actors. Yet Europol notes that modern jihadist threats are significantly different from those that dominated the previous decade. Rather than centrally directed operations organised by established terrorist groups, many recent plots have been carried out by individuals acting independently after consuming extremist content online. These actors frequently pledge allegiance to organisations such as Islamic State but have little or no direct contact with the groups themselves. The result is a threat environment that is increasingly difficult for security services to predict and disrupt.

At the same time, Europol highlights the growing influence of global events on radicalisation processes within Europe. Terrorist organisations and extremist movements continue to exploit geopolitical crises to reinforce grievances, recruit supporters and justify acts of violence. These narratives are rapidly disseminated through social media and encrypted messaging platforms, giving extremist groups unprecedented access to audiences across national borders.

The Digital Battlefield
One of the report’s most important conclusions is that the internet has become the primary operating environment for contemporary extremist movements. Social media platforms, encrypted communications applications and online forums now perform virtually every stage of the terrorist cycle. Radicalisation, recruitment, financing, operational planning and propaganda dissemination increasingly occur online, often without any physical interaction between extremists.

Europol notes that extremist content has adapted to modern online culture. Traditional propaganda has been supplemented by memes, gaming content, video clips and influencer-style messaging designed specifically to engage younger audiences. Recommendation algorithms can inadvertently guide users from mainstream content towards increasingly extremist narratives. The agency warns that this process is contributing to the growing number of young people becoming involved in extremist activity across Europe. Many suspects arrested during 2025 were teenagers or young adults who had been radicalised almost entirely through online interactions.

The report suggests that future counter-terrorism strategies will need to place greater emphasis on understanding digital ecosystems and online behavioural trends, as traditional approaches aimed at disrupting established organisations may be less effective against decentralised online networks.

The Rise of Hybrid Extremism
Europol repeatedly highlights the growing blurring of ideological boundaries. Increasingly, individuals involved in extremist activity draw influence from multiple belief systems rather than adhering to a single ideological framework. Conspiracy theories, anti-government narratives, racist ideologies, violent misogyny and nihilistic worldviews may all coexist within the same online communities.

Particular attention is devoted to emerging decentralised networks collectively referred to as “The Com.” These online ecosystems combine elements of cybercrime, extortion, harassment and real-world violence. Unlike traditional terrorist organisations, they often lack a coherent political objective. Instead, participants are motivated by notoriety, disruption and social destabilisation. Europol believes such networks represent a growing challenge because they blur the distinction between organised crime and violent extremism while operating across multiple digital platforms and jurisdictions.

This hybridisation of extremist activity means the future threat landscape may be defined less by identifiable organisations and more by loose affiliations of individuals connected through shared grievances and online interactions.

Technology as a Force Multiplier
Emerging technologies feature prominently throughout the report, particularly artificial intelligence. Europol identifies AI as a potential force multiplier capable of significantly enhancing extremist capabilities. Terrorist actors are already experimenting with AI-generated propaganda, synthetic audio and video content, multilingual messaging and new methods of engagement designed to increase audience reach.

Although safeguards exist within most commercial AI systems, Europol notes that extremists have demonstrated growing interest in bypassing such protections. The concern is not simply that AI can improve propaganda quality, but that it lowers the barriers to content creation, enabling individuals with limited technical expertise to produce increasingly sophisticated material.

Despite these developments, Europol notes that most terrorist attacks continue to rely on simple and readily available weapons. Knives, improvised explosive devices, arson attacks and vehicles remain the preferred methods of attack. Nevertheless, interest in drones, 3D-printed weapons and other advanced technologies is increasing.

As technology becomes more accessible, Europol warns that extremist groups may gain access to capabilities that were previously beyond their reach.

Global Events, Local Consequences
The report highlights the profound influence of international events on Europe’s security environment. The conflict in Gaza is identified as one of the most significant drivers of extremist narratives during the reporting period. Various ideological movements have used the conflict to reinforce grievances, intensify polarisation and mobilise supporters. Jewish communities and institutions across Europe have experienced heightened threat levels as extremist groups exploit the conflict for recruitment and propaganda purposes.

Europol also points to instability in the Sahel region, ongoing conflicts involving Iran and its regional proxies, and the continuing impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine as contributing factors shaping Europe’s security environment. These conflicts provide extremist movements with narratives that can be adapted for local audiences, reinforcing existing grievances and helping to sustain recruitment efforts.

Alongside jihadist terrorism, the report notes continued activity among right-wing extremist groups, anarchist movements and separatist organisations. While these threats vary in scale and capability, Europol stresses that they collectively contribute to an increasingly diverse and complex threat environment that cannot be understood through a single ideological lens.

Looking Ahead
The central message of EU-TE-SAT 2026 is that Europe faces a terrorist threat that is evolving faster than traditional security models. Future attackers may have little or no connection to established organisations, may become radicalised entirely online, and may draw inspiration from multiple ideologies simultaneously. The convergence of terrorism, organised crime, digital technologies and geopolitical instability is creating a security environment that is increasingly fragmented and unpredictable.

Europol’s assessment suggests that the challenge for European security agencies in the coming years will not simply be preventing attacks but understanding the rapidly changing ecosystems that generate them. As extremist networks continue to adapt, exploit technology and respond to global events, the threat landscape is likely to become more diverse, more decentralised and more difficult to detect. The report ultimately concludes that while Europe has achieved significant successes in disrupting terrorist plots, maintaining security will require sustained cooperation, technological innovation and a deeper understanding of the online environments where contemporary extremism increasingly thrives.

Download the full report: www.europol.europa.eu/cms/sites/default/files/documents/EU-TE-SAT-2026.pdf