Global drug trafficking shifts to a duopoly
What follows is a summary of just one section that deals with global drug trafficking, of the extensive and highly influential report Global Organized Crime Index 2025 – Crime at a crossroads.
The report titled “Crossroads of Crime and Resilience” outlines significant transformations in global drug trafficking, emphasizing a shift towards a duopoly dominated by cocaine and synthetic drugs. This evolution in drug markets is driven by various factors, including disruptions in heroin production, a surge in cocaine supplies, the increasing prevalence of synthetic opioids, and the gradual legalization of cannabis in certain countries. These changes are reshaping production, trafficking, and consumption patterns worldwide, with profound implications for public health, organized crime, and drug-related violence.
The global drug trade is expanding rapidly, with record-high drug use and escalating social and security costs observed across nearly every region. According to the 2025 World Drug Report, approximately 316 million people used drugs in 2023, marking a 28% increase over the past decade, which exceeds global population growth. Within this overarching trend, distinct dynamics are emerging that will shape the future of the drug economy.
One of the most notable shifts is the significant rise in the prevalence of cocaine and synthetic drugs. Both markets have exhibited continuous and substantial growth since the first global assessment in 2021. The cocaine market score increased from 4.52 in 2021 to 4.89 in 2025, while the synthetic drugs market grew even more sharply, rising from 4.62 to 5.14 during the same period. The synthetic drug trade registered the largest year-on-year increase of any criminal market since 2021, only surpassed by financial crimes in terms of growth since 2023.
While cannabis remains the most widely used illicit substance and heroin continues to have a presence in certain regions, the 2025 Index indicates a pivotal moment where cocaine and synthetic drugs are on a rapid path to dominating global drug markets. This shift is largely attributed to the profitability and adaptability of these drugs, particularly as criminal organizations leverage changing consumer preferences and advancements in production techniques.
The cocaine market is characterized by its geographical specificity, as production is localized to certain areas with specific climatic conditions. This necessitates specialized supply chains and logistics, allowing powerful cartels to exert control over trafficking routes and territories. South America remains the epicentre of cocaine production, with regions such as South America, Central America, and the Caribbean ranking highest in cocaine trade. The connections maintained by South American cartels with local groups in other regions facilitate this illicit trade, reflecting the global reach of these criminal networks.
In contrast, the synthetic drug economy is much more decentralized and flexible. Production laboratories can be established near consumer markets, significantly lowering operational costs and barriers to entry. The trade of precursor chemicals used in synthetic drug production is challenging to regulate, as many of these chemicals are legally available and widely accessible. This adaptability makes the synthetic drug market particularly difficult to control. The Index indicates that synthetic drugs have a significant to severe influence in approximately half of the countries studied, with 77 out of 193 experiencing market expansion since 2023.
North America is grappling with a deepening crisis driven by fentanyl and methamphetamine, while Western Asia remains heavily affected by Captagon, a synthetic stimulant. Southeastern Asia is also a significant hub for methamphetamine production and exports. The synthetic drug market is expanding into new regions, including West and Central Africa, where non-medical use of synthetic pharmaceuticals like tramadol is becoming a growing concern. In Europe, the emergence of potent opioids like nitazenes signals an escalating challenge.
Despite the dominance of cocaine and synthetic drugs in emerging markets, heroin and cannabis still play crucial roles in the global drug economy. Cannabis, while experiencing shifts due to increasing legalization, remains highly consumed due to its relatively low harmful effects compared to other controlled substances. Although its market score has declined slightly, it continues to be a significant player globally. Heroin, despite facing supply disruptions due to a ban on opium cultivation in Afghanistan, remains widely available, particularly in Asia. However, signs of reduced purity and rising prices indicate a potential decline in supply, raising the risk of a shift toward synthetic opioids as substitutes.
In addition to the evolving drug landscape, the report emphasizes that forms of non-violent organized crime are increasingly impacting society, adding to the burden of enduring violent crimes. Violence is a recurring feature of organized crime, but its role varies depending on the market. In some cases, violence is not essential to sustain illicit activities, while in others, it is an intrinsic part of how the market operates. For example, financial crimes and cyber-dependent crimes operate through technological means rather than physical coercion, highlighting the growing importance of less visible forms of organized crime.
Cybercrime is a notable area of concern, as it has become a central threat in the global economy, with losses estimated to rival the GDP of major economies. Financial crimes have grown extensively, with an average score of 6.21 in 2025, making it the most prevalent criminal market. Cyber-dependent crimes, although less pervasive, have registered growth, with many regions experiencing worsening markets. The accessibility of cybercrime tools has lowered barriers to entry, enabling individuals with limited technical skills to engage in sophisticated cybercriminal activities.
The report also discusses the growth of the counterfeit goods market, which has expanded significantly and is now recognized as a serious concern. The market has diversified and industrialized, encompassing not only luxury items but also essential goods and life-saving medicines. The value of the counterfeit trade is projected to reach $1.79 trillion by 2030, posing substantial economic losses and public health risks.
Criminal actors demonstrate remarkable adaptability, exploiting global shifts in conflict, resource scarcity, consumer preferences, and technological advancements. Foreign criminal actors are increasingly prominent, particularly in regions like West Africa, where their influence permeates various strands of the criminal economy. Private sector actors are also becoming involved in organized crime, either as direct perpetrators or facilitators, enabling the movement of illicit goods and the integration of criminal proceeds into the formal economy.
As international cooperation in combating organized crime faces challenges, the report highlights a decline in judicial systems’ effectiveness, reflecting weaknesses in addressing organized crime. Corruption and political interference undermine judicial independence, allowing organized crime to flourish. The findings suggest that resilience measures must be recalibrated to address emerging risks, particularly in light of the increasing prominence of non-violent crimes and the adaptability of criminal actors.
In conclusion, the report underscores a critical shift in the global drug trade towards a duopoly of cocaine and synthetic drugs, alongside the rising importance of non-violent organized crime. The interplay between economic pressures, technological advancements, and the adaptability of criminal actors presents complex challenges for global security and public health. Effective international cooperation and robust judicial systems are essential to counter these evolving threats and mitigate their impacts on society.
To read the full report go to: https://ocindex.net/report/2025/
To read this article and more: Download the Nov/Dec 2025 issue
